Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 1325 at 06:47 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–30%.

Safest bet that day AS 1325 SNA 06:47 → SEA 09:42 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2318 SNA 18:45 → SEA 21:36 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1325 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 06:47	SEA 09:42	14%	3%	0.8%	94%
AS 471 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 10:28	SEA 13:17	15%	4%	0.7%	92%
AS 702 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 08:05	SEA 10:55	16%	4%	0.7%	92%
AS 548 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 12:05	SEA 14:54	16%	4%	0.7%	92%
DL 3695 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 07:00	SEA 09:53	18%	6%	0.7%	84%
AS 774 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 17:32	SEA 20:20	18%	5%	0.7%	86%
AS 1428 Alaska	SNA 10:49	SEA 13:32	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 760 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 14:45	SEA 17:32	22%	6%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
OO 3687 SkyWest	SNA 07:08	SEA 09:55	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 454 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 18:46	SEA 21:34	23%	6%	0.7%	59%
DL 3966 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 11:25	SEA 14:25	24%	6%	0.6%	76%
OO 3694 SkyWest	SNA 11:58	SEA 14:45	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 3999 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 17:36	SEA 20:29	25%	6%	0.7%	78%
DL 952 Delta Flight history →	SNA 14:09	SEA 16:59	28%	6%	0.7%	67%
DL 1001 Delta	SNA 14:10	SEA 16:57	30%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 2318 Delta Flight history →	SNA 18:45	SEA 21:36	30%	6%	0.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON