Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3858 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3858 SNA 06:45 → SJC 08:15 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 4936 SNA 19:55 → SJC 21:10 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3858 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 06:45	SJC 08:15	2%	1%	0.7%	100%
WN 761 Southwest	SNA 06:46	SJC 08:13	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4009 Southwest	SNA 08:25	SJC 09:53	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3859 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 08:10	SJC 09:30	5%	1%	0.7%	98%
WN 1096 Southwest	SNA 09:30	SJC 10:57	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3860 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 09:55	SJC 11:10	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 3861 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 12:00	SJC 13:25	9%	3%	0.7%	91%
WN 3863 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 15:00	SJC 16:20	13%	3%	0.7%	90%
WN 3862 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 13:30	SJC 14:50	15%	4%	0.7%	62%
WN 3864 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 17:00	SJC 18:20	16%	5%	0.7%	53%
WN 342 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 18:25	SJC 19:40	16%	5%	0.7%	74%
WN 4936 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 19:55	SJC 21:10	16%	5%	0.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON