Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:19 am at St Louis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1467 Southwest Flight history →	STL 14:20	CHS 17:20	13%	5%	0.2%	69%
WN 884 Southwest	STL 16:30	CHS 19:33	18%	6%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 16:54 → ATL 19:45DL 543	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850	6h 32m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	STL 11:00 → BWI 14:05WN 4614	2h 15m Baltimore	BWI 16:20 → CHS 18:11WN 974	6h 11m	99%	78%
United Details →	STL 10:20 → ORD 11:52UA 4517 · flown by GoJet	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 14:52 → CHS 18:22UA 4664 · flown by SkyWest	7h 02m	100%	77%
American Details →	STL 11:00 → MIA 14:46AA 3954 · flown by Envoy	2h 19m Miami	MIA 17:05 → CHS 18:56AA 2397	6h 56m	100%	73%
United Details →	STL 13:13 → ORD 14:43UA 1382	3h 42m Chicago	ORD 18:25 → CHS 21:48UA 2362	7h 35m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	STL 15:58 → ATL 18:43DL 2700	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 22:05 → CHS 23:19DL 2525	6h 21m	98%	70%
American Details →	STL 14:31 → ORD 15:59AA 3815 · flown by Envoy	3h 46m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → CHS 23:09AA 3127	7h 38m	97%	70%
Southwest Details →	STL 11:30 → DEN 12:40WN 4312	2h 10m Denver	DEN 14:50 → CHS 20:06WN 1190	7h 36m	98%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 12:55 → IAD 16:07UA 4454 · flown by GoJet	1h 08m Dulles	IAD 17:15 → CHS 19:07UA 4310 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 12m	74%	46%
American Details →	STL 17:43 → PHL 21:08AA 3049	47m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → CHS 23:55AA 5068 · flown by PSA	5h 12m	64%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON