Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:20 pm at St Louis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4988 Southwest Flight history →	STL 15:55	ECP 17:40	21%	5%	0.8%	65%
WN 4070 Southwest	STL 15:53	ECP 17:19	23%	5%	1.0%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 16:54 → ATL 19:45DL 543	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	6h 43m	100%	68%
Southwest Details →	STL 14:30 → BNA 15:40WN 3888	3h 45m Nashville	BNA 19:25 → ECP 20:57WN 554	6h 27m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	STL 15:58 → ATL 18:43DL 2700	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494	4h 48m	90%	60%
American Details →	STL 18:13 → CLT 21:11AA 2731	1h 58m Charlotte	CLT 23:09 → ECP 23:55AA 5633 · flown by PSA	5h 42m	96%	49%
Southwest Details →	STL 17:30 → DAL 19:10WN 1417	1h 10m Dallas	DAL 20:20 → ECP 22:21WN 1251	4h 51m	79%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	STL 16:54 → ATL 19:45DL 543	50m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494	3h 52m	70%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON