Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 577 STL 07:30 → EWR 11:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3564 STL 16:53 → EWR 20:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 577 United	STL 07:30	EWR 11:11	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 648 United Flight history →	STL 06:01	EWR 09:30	5%	3%	0.8%	94%
YX 3715 Republic	STL 09:29	EWR 13:00	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 3573 United flown by Republic Flight history →	STL 12:23	EWR 16:00	9%	5%	0.8%	87%
YX 3710 Republic	STL 16:55	EWR 20:50	13%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 560 United	STL 12:22	EWR 15:57	14%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 3564 United flown by Republic Flight history →	STL 16:53	EWR 20:30	14%	8%	1.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON