tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:15 pm at St Louis); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33% (calm day: 20%). Best bet: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 17:36, 67% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 17:36 → MSP 19:15DL 3185 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146 7h 54m 98% 67%
AmericanDetails → STL 17:58 → ORD 19:59AA 4537 · flown by Republic 53m Chicago ORD 20:52 → SAN 23:32AA 1785 7h 34m 86% 42%
SouthwestDetails → STL 17:35 → BNA 18:45WN 694 3h 20m Nashville BNA 22:05 → SAN 00:14 +1WN 709 8h 39m 100% 42%
SouthwestDetails → STL 19:20 → PHX 20:30WN 4615 2h 20m Phoenix PHX 22:50 → SAN 00:12 +1WN 2921 6h 52m 92% 39%
SouthwestDetails → STL 18:30 → MDW 19:35WN 596 1h 50m Chicago MDW 21:25 → SAN 23:32WN 4285 7h 02m 89% 38%
SouthwestDetails → STL 19:45 → LAS 21:10WN 3935 1h 35m Las Vegas LAS 22:45 → SAN 00:03 +1WN 2397 6h 18m 85% 34%
SouthwestDetails → STL 17:30 → DAL 19:10WN 1417 2h 40m Dallas DAL 21:50 → SAN 22:53WN 1202 7h 23m 94% 30%
AmericanDetails → STL 19:22 → DFW 21:20AA 2491 1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → SAN 23:59AA 2568 6h 37m 76% 27%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 19:23 → SFO 21:43UA 2482 59m San Francisco SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142 7h 08m 67% 42%
FrontierDetails → STL 20:08 → DEN 21:44F9 4567 46m Denver DEN 22:30 → SAN 00:04 +1F9 2711 5h 56m 60% 33%
SouthwestDetails → STL 19:10 → DAL 20:50WN 3597 1h 00m Dallas DAL 21:50 → SAN 22:53WN 1202 5h 43m 65% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON