Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: AS 3047 at 11:04, 30%.

Safest bet today AS 3047 STS 11:04 → SAN 12:50 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time Riskiest WN 3994 STS 17:10 → SAN 18:50 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Weather 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 3047 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 11:04	SAN 12:50	30%	12%	1.0%	60%
WN 3401 Southwest	STS 16:50	SAN 18:34	38%	9%	0.6%	no record
OO 3141 SkyWest	STS 16:37	SAN 18:24	38%	12%	1.0%	no record
WN 3994 Southwest Flight history →	STS 17:10	SAN 18:50	40%	9%	0.6%	29%
AS 2257 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	STS 17:56	SAN 19:35	58%	18%	3.8%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON