Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: AS 513 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet today AS 513 STS 07:00 → SEA 08:55 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3044 STS 19:23 → SEA 21:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 513 Alaska	STS 07:00	SEA 08:55	21%	3%	1.6%	no record
AS 1322 Alaska Flight history →	STS 12:52	SEA 14:55	24%	6%	0.9%	76%
AS 1348 Alaska	STS 17:06	SEA 19:02	28%	6%	0.9%	no record
AS 3044 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 19:23	SEA 21:30	33%	12%	0.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON