Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:04 pm at Charlotte Amalie)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1823 Delta Flight history →	STT 13:21	ATL 17:14	21%	4%	0.6%	81%
DL 1883 Delta Flight history →	STT 15:33	ATL 19:30	22%	4%	0.6%	82%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 16:31 → JFK 20:48DL 1768	2h 14m New York	JFK 23:02 → ATL 01:35 +1DL 8800	9h 04m	100%	78%
United Details →	STT 16:45 → IAD 20:58UA 1445	1h 27m Dulles	IAD 22:25 → ATL 00:34 +1UA 1357	7h 49m	92%	75%
American Details →	STT 15:50 → MIA 18:54AA 1391	3h 02m Miami	MIA 21:56 → ATL 23:59AA 659	8h 09m	99%	72%
American Details →	STT 16:50 → MIA 19:54AA 2738	2h 59m Miami	MIA 22:53 → ATL 00:56 +1AA 1045	8h 06m	98%	70%
American Details →	STT 13:49 → MIA 16:50AA 2744	3h 51m Miami	MIA 20:41 → ATL 22:46AA 3261	8h 57m	99%	70%
American Details →	STT 16:46 → CLT 20:55AA 1965	1h 57m Charlotte	CLT 22:52 → ATL 00:08 +1AA 1656	7h 22m	91%	58%
American Details →	STT 14:28 → DFW 19:10AA 2743	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → ATL 00:19 +1AA 2749	9h 51m	93%	58%
American Details →	STT 13:18 → CLT 17:22AA 2684	3h 06m Charlotte	CLT 20:28 → ATL 21:48AA 5498 · flown by PSA	8h 30m	96%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STT 13:22 → IAH 17:25UA 2208	49m Houston	IAH 18:14 → ATL 21:31UA 2240	8h 09m	73%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON