Today: WN 4002 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–39%.

Safest bet today WN 4002 TPA 07:25 → BNA 08:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 4005 TPA 17:20 → BNA 18:15 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 4002 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 07:25	BNA 08:20	5%	1%	0.2%	82%
WN 4623 Southwest	TPA 08:56	BNA 09:54	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
AA 3825 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TPA 11:55	BNA 12:56	11%	3%	0.6%	80%
WN 4003 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 10:05	BNA 11:00	11%	2%	0.2%	82%
WN 2315 Southwest	TPA 11:01	BNA 11:59	11%	3%	0.2%	no record
MQ 3642 Envoy	TPA 12:26	BNA 13:27	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 506 Southwest	TPA 13:26	BNA 14:23	20%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4004 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 14:05	BNA 15:00	25%	4%	0.2%	79%
AA 3823 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TPA 16:55	BNA 17:59	29%	10%	0.7%	66%
WN 4006 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 20:45	BNA 21:45	30%	8%	0.7%	51%
WN 603 Southwest	TPA 21:15	BNA 22:14	31%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 2364 Southwest	TPA 19:10	BNA 20:08	31%	9%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3639 Envoy	TPA 17:27	BNA 18:28	33%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 4005 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 17:20	BNA 18:15	39%	8%	0.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON