Today: WN 2701 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet today WN 2701 TPA 07:20 → BWI 09:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 941 TPA 15:20 → BWI 17:45 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 2701 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 07:20	BWI 09:45	6%	1%	0.4%	96%
WN 3297 Southwest	TPA 08:55	BWI 11:24	7%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 4009 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 09:05	BWI 11:25	8%	2%	0.4%	88%
WN 1016 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 10:40	BWI 13:00	14%	3%	0.4%	88%
WN 1072 Southwest	TPA 11:40	BWI 14:10	17%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4010 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 22:30	BWI 00:55	20%	9%	0.9%	59%
F9 4092 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 20:07	BWI 22:45	25%	11%	1.8%	91%worse than usual
WN 4153 Southwest	TPA 17:42	BWI 20:12	27%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 928 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 18:45	BWI 21:15	30%	9%	0.8%	41%
WN 4338 Southwest	TPA 19:17	BWI 21:46	31%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 941 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 15:20	BWI 17:45	33%	9%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON