Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: MX 1338 at 16:34, 28%.

Safest bet today MX 1338 TPA 16:34 → CMH 18:57 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4158 TPA 21:55 → CMH 00:15 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


MX 1338 Breeze	TPA 16:34	CMH 18:57	28%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 4755 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 22:15	CMH 00:35	30%	6%	0.5%	66%
WN 4158 Southwest	TPA 21:55	CMH 00:15	39%	7%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON