tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:14 am at Tampa); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: DL 1679 at 18:25 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40%.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1679 Delta Flight history → TPA 18:25 CVG 20:42 26% 8% 0.4% 74%
F9 1381 Frontier Flight history → TPA 18:54 CVG 21:18 40% 15% 0.9% 51%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:18 → MSP 17:38DL 2696 2h 42m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469 7h 53m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395 6h 36m 96% 81%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 10:40 → BWI 13:00WN 1016 2h 20m Baltimore BWI 15:20 → CVG 16:55WN 760 6h 15m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:32 → ATL 18:23DL 1167 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 21:48 → CVG 23:15DL 1858 6h 43m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → TPA 13:59 → ORD 15:57AA 2920 2h 49m Chicago ORD 18:46 → CVG 21:20AA 3674 · flown by Envoy 7h 21m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → TPA 18:30 → ORD 21:01AA 2768 1h 27m Chicago ORD 22:28 → CVG 00:53 +1AA 4737 · flown by Republic 6h 23m 85% 78%
UnitedDetails → TPA 16:30 → ORD 18:40UA 1010 2h 40m Chicago ORD 21:20 → CVG 23:52UA 2148 7h 22m 92% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852 3h 09m Detroit DTW 16:32 → CVG 17:49DL 5060 · flown by Endeavor 7h 08m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:33 → MIA 18:45AA 2987 1h 00m Miami MIA 19:45 → CVG 22:35AA 4115 · flown by Envoy 5h 02m 65% 56%
UnitedDetails → TPA 18:57 → IAD 21:30UA 1370 47m Dulles IAD 22:17 → CVG 23:59UA 3521 · flown by Republic 5h 02m 59% 50%
UnitedDetails → TPA 17:25 → IAH 18:52UA 1834 51m Houston IAH 19:43 → CVG 23:04UA 2069 5h 39m 54% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON