tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4163 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4163 TPA 05:05 → DEN 06:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4020 TPA 17:35 → DEN 19:35 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time
Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 4163 Southwest TPA 05:05 DEN 06:55 5% 1% 0.2% no record
WN 4018 Southwest Flight history → TPA 05:00 DEN 06:40 5% 1% 0.2% 93%
WN 4019 Southwest Flight history → TPA 07:35 DEN 09:25 10% 1% 0.2% 93%
UA 1812 United TPA 08:02 DEN 10:10 11% 4% 0.2% no record
UA 2167 United Flight history → TPA 08:00 DEN 10:02 11% 4% 0.2% 92%
WN 4164 Southwest TPA 08:00 DEN 09:51 11% 1% 0.2% no record
UA 645 United Flight history → TPA 12:45 DEN 14:47 11% 3% 0.6% 92%
F9 1113 Frontier Flight history → TPA 06:12 DEN 08:16 12% 6% 0.7% 85%
UA 683 United Flight history → TPA 12:20 DEN 14:09 13% 3% 0.6% 87%
WN 4165 Southwest TPA 15:25 DEN 17:12 25% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 4620 Southwest Flight history → TPA 20:45 DEN 22:45 25% 6% 0.7% 58%
UA 1076 United TPA 16:13 DEN 18:23 25% 7% 0.6% no record
F9 2745 Frontier Flight history → TPA 20:20 DEN 22:29 27% 10% 1.2% 75%
UA 1773 United Flight history → TPA 16:20 DEN 18:20 28% 8% 0.6% 67%
WN 4166 Southwest TPA 18:00 DEN 19:47 30% 6% 0.7% no record
WN 4020 Southwest Flight history → TPA 17:35 DEN 19:35 30% 7% 0.7% 59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:40 → MCI 07:25WN 4963 55m Kansas City MCI 08:20 → DEN 09:09WN 1566 5h 29m 95% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON