Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1369 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–46%.

Safest bet that day AA 1369 TPA 05:57 → DFW 07:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1957 TPA 17:05 → DFW 18:48 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1369 American Flight history →	TPA 05:57	DFW 07:47	9%	4%	0.9%	90%
AA 2268 American Flight history →	TPA 05:45	DFW 07:36	9%	3%	0.9%	90%
AA 1768 American Flight history →	TPA 07:00	DFW 08:50	11%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 349 American Flight history →	TPA 07:57	DFW 09:40	18%	5%	1.3%	88%
AA 1189 American Flight history →	TPA 09:11	DFW 10:57	19%	5%	1.2%	89%
F9 1333 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 12:13	DFW 14:12	20%	11%	1.8%	84%
AA 2516 American Flight history →	TPA 11:31	DFW 13:26	23%	6%	1.3%	77%
AA 2814 American Flight history →	TPA 11:33	DFW 13:17	25%	7%	1.3%	79%
AA 3112 American Flight history →	TPA 14:16	DFW 16:13	31%	9%	1.3%	78%
AA 3245 American Flight history →	TPA 13:57	DFW 15:46	33%	9%	1.3%	57%
AA 2767 American Flight history →	TPA 16:30	DFW 18:24	39%	14%	1.3%	32%
AA 3272 American Flight history →	TPA 19:50	DFW 21:37	41%	15%	2.2%	24%
AA 2813 American Flight history →	TPA 17:55	DFW 19:49	44%	15%	1.9%	38%
AA 1957 American	TPA 17:05	DFW 18:48	46%	14%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON