Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4468 at 05:45, 5%.

Safest bet today WN 4468 TPA 05:45 → HOU 07:02 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest WN 4169 TPA 12:55 → HOU 14:13 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4468 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 05:45	HOU 07:02	5%	1%	0.4%	65%
WN 4023 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 05:30	HOU 06:45	5%	1%	0.4%	95%
WN 4170 Southwest	TPA 20:20	HOU 21:39	35%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 4025 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 20:40	HOU 21:55	36%	9%	0.7%	52%
WN 4169 Southwest	TPA 12:55	HOU 14:13	37%	6%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON