Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2331 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2331 TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1370 TPA 18:57 → IAD 21:30 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2331 United Flight history →	TPA 09:00	IAD 11:22	9%	4%	0.9%	94%
UA 1576 United Flight history →	TPA 14:00	IAD 16:22	16%	6%	0.8%	85%
F9 2954 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 09:10	IAD 11:43	18%	8%	1.3%	85%
UA 1370 United Flight history →	TPA 18:57	IAD 21:30	22%	10%	1.3%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON