tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:27 pm at Tampa); 3 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47% (calm day: 27%). Best bet: Southwest via Austin, leaving 18:55, 49% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 749 Delta Flight history → TPA 19:15 LAX 21:17 43% 9% 0.5% 76%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TPA 16:30 → ORD 18:40UA 1010 2h 50m Chicago ORD 21:30 → LAX 00:09 +1UA 661 10h 39m 90% 70%
UnitedDetails → TPA 17:25 → IAH 18:52UA 1834 3h 11m Houston IAH 22:03 → LAX 23:38UA 2215 9h 13m 94% 67%
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:33 → MIA 18:45AA 2987 3h 35m Miami MIA 22:20 → LAX 00:48 +1AA 669 10h 15m 97% 63%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 17:10 → MSY 17:45WN 4038 2h 50m New Orleans MSY 20:35 → LAX 22:47WN 3490 8h 37m 95% 57%
DeltaDetails → TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 23:03 → LAX 00:50 +1DL 8783 9h 47m 95% 55%
AmericanDetails → TPA 18:30 → ORD 21:01AA 2768 1h 29m Chicago ORD 22:30 → LAX 00:52 +1AA 1209 9h 22m 82% 55%
AmericanDetails → TPA 16:51 → CLT 18:49AA 2784 1h 24m Charlotte CLT 20:13 → LAX 22:17AA 2001 8h 26m 83% 51%
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:48 → ATL 17:59DL 1720 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:50 → LAX 22:32DL 331 8h 44m 94% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TPA 19:13 → SFO 21:50UA 2777 47m San Francisco SFO 22:37 → LAX 00:19 +1UA 2179 8h 06m 38% 28%
AmericanDetails → TPA 19:50 → DFW 21:37AA 3272 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:26 → LAX 23:39AA 2038 6h 49m 45% 23%
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:48 → ATL 17:59DL 1720 52m Atlanta ATL 18:51 → LAX 20:37DL 996 6h 49m 34% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON