Today: AS 518 at 19:25 is the safest bet, 30% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–41%.

Safest bet today AS 518 TPA 19:25 → SAN 21:17 · 30% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3074 TPA 16:50 → SAN 18:58 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 518 Alaska	TPA 19:25	SAN 21:17	30%	6%	1.0%	no record
AS 1638 Alaska Flight history →	TPA 17:32	SAN 19:24	35%	7%	0.9%	76%worse than usual
WN 133 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 19:00	SAN 20:55	37%	9%	0.8%	50%
WN 3074 Southwest	TPA 16:50	SAN 18:58	41%	7%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	TPA 05:00 → DEN 06:40WN 4018	55m Denver	DEN 07:35 → SAN 08:59WN 1753	6h 59m	91%	76%
Southwest Details →	TPA 05:50 → STL 07:10WN 4048	1h 00m St Louis	STL 08:10 → SAN 09:50WN 4283	7h 00m	96%	75%
Southwest Details →	TPA 05:30 → HOU 06:45WN 4023	1h 15m Houston	HOU 08:00 → SAN 09:20WN 2115	6h 50m	96%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON