Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:05 pm at Tulsa); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36% (calm day: 23%). Best bet: United via Bush, leaving 15:43, 60% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUL 15:43 → IAH 17:24UA 5301 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Houston	IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621	5h 42m	99%	60%
United Details →	TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest	2h 17m Denver	DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943	6h 34m	94%	59%
Southwest Details →	TUL 16:20 → BNA 17:55WN 2374	3h 05m Nashville	BNA 21:00 → AUS 23:23WN 2372	7h 03m	100%	57%
American Details →	TUL 18:33 → DFW 19:58AA 4133 · flown by Envoy	2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:50 → AUS 23:51AA 1588	5h 18m	94%	54%
Delta Details →	TUL 18:49 → ATL 22:00DL 2837	59m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → AUS 00:18 +1DL 1335	5h 29m	84%	51%
Southwest Details →	TUL 18:40 → DAL 19:45WN 4054	2h 10m Dallas	DAL 21:55 → AUS 23:05WN 4887	4h 25m	91%	50%
American Details →	TUL 15:49 → DFW 17:13AA 5420 · flown by PSA	3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707	5h 48m	92%	47%
Southwest Details →	TUL 18:40 → DEN 19:30WN 4333	1h 30m Denver	DEN 21:00 → AUS 00:13 +1WN 2695	5h 33m	77%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TUL 15:49 → DFW 17:13AA 5420 · flown by PSA	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:04 → AUS 19:16AA 5574 · flown by PSA	3h 27m	57%	35%
Southwest Details →	TUL 17:20 → MCO 21:10WN 2091	1h 10m Orlando	MCO 22:20 → AUS 23:55WN 2600	6h 35m	63%	31%
Southwest Details →	TUL 16:20 → BNA 17:55WN 2374	51m Nashville	BNA 18:46 → AUS 21:10WN 165	4h 50m	31%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON