Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1729 TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2657 TUL 13:53 → CLT 17:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1729 American Flight history →	TUL 07:00	CLT 10:30	13%	5%	0.4%	92%
AA 2853 American Flight history →	TUL 13:51	CLT 17:25	22%	4%	1.2%	71%
AA 2657 American	TUL 13:53	CLT 17:11	22%	4%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON