Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:47 pm at Tulsa)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 36–38% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5128 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TUL 16:23	DCA 20:05	36%	23%	1.3%	90%worse than usual
AA 5423 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TUL 16:17	DCA 20:11	38%	22%	1.3%	63%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUL 15:43 → IAH 17:24UA 5301 · flown by SkyWest	2h 26m Houston	IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224	7h 16m	97%	72%
Southwest Details →	TUL 16:05 → MDW 17:50WN 2717	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 20:45 → DCA 23:44WN 2406	6h 39m	94%	71%
Southwest Details →	TUL 16:20 → BNA 17:55WN 2374	2h 20m Nashville	BNA 20:15 → DCA 23:03WN 4843	5h 43m	100%	67%
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	6h 04m	92%	67%
American Details →	TUL 15:49 → DFW 17:13AA 5420 · flown by PSA	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077	7h 10m	92%	55%
American Details →	TUL 15:17 → CLT 18:16AA 1729	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 20:49 → DCA 22:16AA 2432	5h 59m	85%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON