Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1049 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1049 TUL 06:55 → IAH 08:36 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5301 TUL 15:43 → IAH 17:24 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1049 United	TUL 06:55	IAH 08:36	17%	4%	0.3%	no record
OO 5748 SkyWest	TUL 09:08	IAH 11:03	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 5637 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 13:41	IAH 15:29	22%	6%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
OO 6015 SkyWest	TUL 13:59	IAH 15:57	23%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 5301 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 15:43	IAH 17:24	27%	6%	0.7%	64%
UA 4041 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 05:00	IAH 06:43	6%	1%	0.0%	94%
UA 3984 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 07:00	IAH 08:46	9%	3%	0.0%	91%
UA 4007 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 09:00	IAH 10:47	12%	4%	0.0%	88%
UA 4290 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 16:59	IAH 18:54	15%	5%	1.8%	85%
UA 4068 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 19:00	IAH 20:50	22%	6%	0.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON