Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:16 am at Tulsa); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


YX 4605 Republic	TUL 14:27	LGA 18:48	15%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 4619 American flown by Republic Flight history →	TUL 14:04	LGA 18:19	17%	4%	0.5%	64%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468	7h 47m	95%	72%
United Details →	TUL 14:17 → ORD 16:28UA 4795 · flown by SkyWest	3h 39m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → LGA 23:25UA 2827	8h 08m	100%	72%
United Details →	TUL 13:41 → IAH 15:29UA 5637 · flown by SkyWest	1h 52m Houston	IAH 17:21 → LGA 22:11UA 2495	7h 30m	90%	70%
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 21:52 → LGA 23:59DL 9961	6h 11m	92%	69%
American Details →	TUL 12:19 → ORD 14:24AA 4135 · flown by Envoy	2h 06m Chicago	ORD 16:30 → LGA 19:53AA 2086	6h 34m	97%	67%
American Details →	TUL 16:24 → DCA 20:05AA 5128 · flown by PSA	2h 25m Washington	DCA 22:30 → LGA 23:44AA 4660 · flown by Republic	6h 20m	100%	66%
American Details →	TUL 13:03 → DFW 14:28AA 2352	3h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:00 → LGA 22:24AA 2570	8h 21m	100%	64%
American Details →	TUL 12:49 → DFW 14:13AA 3829 · flown by Envoy	2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:49 → LGA 21:29AA 2513	7h 40m	99%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	TUL 12:25 → HOU 14:05WN 680	50m Houston	HOU 14:55 → LGA 19:16WN 4684	5h 51m	75%	46%
American Details →	TUL 15:49 → DFW 17:13AA 5420 · flown by PSA	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:00 → LGA 22:24AA 2570	5h 35m	66%	43%
United Details →	TUL 13:41 → IAH 15:29UA 5637 · flown by SkyWest	46m Houston	IAH 16:15 → LGA 20:59UA 334	6h 18m	54%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON