Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:58 pm at Tulsa); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2643 Southwest	TUL 16:05	MDW 17:58	21%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 2717 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 16:05	MDW 17:50	21%	3%	0.2%	56%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	TUL 20:35 → LAS 21:30WN 4056	2h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	8h 50m	93%	75%
Southwest Details →	TUL 16:20 → BNA 17:55WN 2374	2h 00m Nashville	BNA 19:55 → MDW 21:39WN 647	5h 19m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 27m	83%	61%
Southwest Details →	TUL 18:40 → DAL 19:45WN 4054	3h 10m Dallas	DAL 22:55 → MDW 01:16 +1WN 1416	6h 36m	96%	57%
Southwest Details →	TUL 18:40 → DEN 19:30WN 4333	1h 25m Denver	DEN 20:55 → MDW 00:21 +1WN 1683	5h 41m	80%	49%
Southwest Details →	TUL 17:20 → MCO 21:10WN 2091	1h 45m Orlando	MCO 22:55 → MDW 00:45 +1WN 4762	7h 25m	88%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	TUL 17:20 → MCO 21:10WN 2091	1h 20m Orlando	MCO 22:30 → MDW 00:28 +1WN 693	7h 08m	63%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON