Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:46 am at Tucson); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, YV 6257 at 11:14, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


YV 6257 Mesa	TUS 11:14	IAH 15:56	16%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	3h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514	8h 34m	98%	81%
United Details →	TUS 13:30 → DEN 16:39UA 2671	2h 56m Denver	DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475	7h 36m	95%	70%
United Details →	TUS 13:09 → SFO 15:41UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m San Francisco	SFO 17:07 → IAH 23:03UA 1649	7h 54m	86%	65%
Delta Details →	TUS 13:49 → ATL 20:45DL 937	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	8h 08m	95%	65%
American Details →	TUS 10:16 → PHX 11:14AA 6367 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Phoenix	PHX 12:18 → IAH 16:59AA 640	4h 43m	88%	64%
American Details →	TUS 13:18 → DFW 17:50AA 2926	3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209	7h 06m	95%	61%
American Details →	TUS 15:57 → DFW 20:29AA 584	2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:52 → IAH 00:09 +1AA 3023	6h 12m	89%	59%
American Details →	TUS 14:21 → ORD 19:50AA 2537	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 21:07 → IAH 23:51AA 3144	7h 30m	83%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TUS 13:18 → DFW 17:50AA 2926	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392	4h 36m	57%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON