Today: WN 3247 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–35%.

Safest bet today WN 3247 TUS 07:45 → PHX 08:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6368 TUS 17:20 → PHX 18:23 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3247 Southwest	TUS 07:45	PHX 08:44	8%	2%	0.2%	no record
AA 3958 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUS 13:50	PHX 14:54	11%	4%	0.2%	91%
AA 4187 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUS 08:39	PHX 09:37	11%	3%	0.2%	93%
MQ 3649 Envoy	TUS 08:50	PHX 09:59	12%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 1559 American	TUS 10:31	PHX 11:30	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 3319 American	TUS 11:56	PHX 12:56	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 4126 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUS 18:33	PHX 19:34	15%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 6369 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 11:37	PHX 12:35	17%	8%	0.2%	80%
AA 6367 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 10:16	PHX 11:14	18%	7%	0.2%	78%
AA 3257 American	TUS 17:22	PHX 18:16	20%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 4085 Southwest Flight history →	TUS 14:25	PHX 15:15	21%	4%	0.2%	81%
AA 4935 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 13:41	PHX 14:43	22%	7%	0.2%	81%
AA 6373 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 14:59	PHX 16:01	23%	9%	0.2%	83%
AA 6207 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 18:25	PHX 19:24	24%	9%	0.7%	70%
OO 6294 SkyWest	TUS 15:15	PHX 16:19	25%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 6457 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 20:18	PHX 21:17	26%	9%	0.7%	60%
WN 951 Southwest	TUS 17:15	PHX 18:14	26%	5%	0.2%	no record
AA 6368 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 17:20	PHX 18:23	35%	9%	0.2%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON