Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2310 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2310 TUS 05:45 → SAN 07:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 3551 TUS 19:00 → SAN 20:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2310 Southwest Flight history →	TUS 05:45	SAN 07:05	5%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 280 Southwest	TUS 06:20	SAN 07:51	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3551 Southwest Flight history →	TUS 19:00	SAN 20:20	37%	7%	0.6%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON