Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:32 am at Traverse City)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 5861 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	TVC 11:54	BOS 14:15	19%	4%	0.7%	86%
AA 4516 American flown by Republic Flight history →	TVC 13:15	BOS 15:30	19%	6%	0.7%	82%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TVC 07:15 → ORD 07:42UA 1486	1h 33m Chicago	ORD 09:15 → BOS 12:57UA 1117	5h 42m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	TVC 17:55 → DTW 19:09DL 3965 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 21:59 → BOS 23:59DL 1187	6h 04m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648	5h 15m	99%	82%
United Details →	TVC 08:29 → ORD 08:57UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 33m Chicago	ORD 10:30 → BOS 14:07UA 1606	5h 38m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	3h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → BOS 22:01DL 1502	8h 25m	100%	80%
American Details →	TVC 16:47 → ORD 17:26AA 3772 · flown by Envoy	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 20:29 → BOS 00:05 +1AA 2682	7h 18m	100%	79%
United Details →	TVC 15:55 → ORD 16:29UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → BOS 23:21UA 1032	7h 26m	100%	77%
United Details →	TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest	3h 23m Chicago	ORD 12:53 → BOS 16:29UA 794	7h 29m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TVC 18:35 → MSP 19:14DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	55m Minneapolis	MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614	5h 20m	55%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON