Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:30 pm at Traverse City)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: MQ 4199 at 17:04, 28%.

Nonstops today


MQ 4199 Envoy	TVC 17:04	DFW 19:02	28%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2870 American Flight history →	TVC 17:07	DFW 19:09	48%	12%	0.7%	57%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	TVC 16:47 → ORD 17:26AA 3772 · flown by Envoy	1h 58m Chicago	ORD 19:24 → DFW 22:06AA 3544 · flown by Envoy	6h 19m	97%	83%
United Details →	TVC 15:55 → ORD 16:29UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	7h 41m	100%	83%
American Details →	TVC 20:14 → ORD 20:33AA 6293 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 21:39 → DFW 00:06 +1AA 2281	4h 52m	100%	75%
United Details →	TVC 16:44 → IAH 19:10UA 5238 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Houston	IAH 21:37 → DFW 22:59UA 1183	7h 15m	85%	65%
Delta Details →	TVC 17:55 → DTW 19:09DL 3965 · flown by SkyWest	1h 37m Detroit	DTW 20:46 → DFW 22:32DL 1207	5h 37m	80%	59%
American Details →	TVC 16:01 → CLT 18:25AA 5628 · flown by PSA	1h 27m Charlotte	CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44AA 1698	6h 43m	88%	45%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TVC 19:53 → ORD 20:44AA 6380 · flown by SkyWest	55m Chicago	ORD 21:39 → DFW 00:06 +1AA 2281	5h 13m	67%	50%
United Details →	TVC 18:29 → ORD 19:00UA 5469 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	5h 07m	37%	31%
United Details →	TVC 16:44 → IAH 19:10UA 5238 · flown by SkyWest	49m Houston	IAH 19:59 → DFW 21:25UA 1949	5h 41m	44%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON