tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:01 pm at Traverse City); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 16:47, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → TVC 16:47 → ORD 17:26AA 3772 · flown by Envoy 3h 40m Chicago ORD 21:06 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 3177 7h 35m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → TVC 20:14 → ORD 20:33AA 6293 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Chicago ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:59 +1AA 490 4h 45m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → TVC 14:18 → ORD 14:45UA 2605 1h 33m Chicago ORD 16:18 → PHL 19:36UA 2825 5h 18m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → TVC 17:55 → DTW 19:09DL 3965 · flown by SkyWest 2h 26m Detroit DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402 5h 21m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → TVC 14:49 → ORD 15:15AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 2h 06m Chicago ORD 17:21 → PHL 20:30AA 1743 5h 41m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → TVC 14:55 → ORD 15:30AA 6379 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Chicago ORD 18:40 → PHL 21:58AA 2443 7h 03m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306 1h 27m Denver DEN 17:54 → PHL 23:30UA 1510 8h 02m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → TVC 18:29 → ORD 19:00UA 5469 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Chicago ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744 6h 28m 86% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TVC 17:07 → DFW 19:09AA 2870 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 +1AA 2542 7h 28m 65% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON