Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4419 at 22:10, 21%.

Safest bet today AA 4419 DCA 22:10 → ORD 23:30 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest YX 4516 DCA 22:38 → ORD 22:49 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Weather 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 79 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4419 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 22:10	ORD 23:30	21%	7%	0.5%	75%
UA 421 United	IAD 22:22	ORD 23:26	28%	8%	0.2%	no record
UA 1738 United Flight history →	IAD 22:20	ORD 23:31	29%	9%	0.2%	80%
YX 4516 Republic	DCA 22:38	ORD 22:49	42%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON