Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:37 am at Fayetteville/Springdale/); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 10–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3871 XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 5233 XNA 18:19 → CLT 21:29 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 3871 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 08:51	CLT 12:12	10%	4%	0.5%	91%
AA 5444 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 13:42	CLT 17:09	11%	3%	0.7%	78%
AA 5446 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 11:07	CLT 14:30	11%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 5327 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 15:17	CLT 18:27	15%	4%	0.7%	86%
AA 5443 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 18:23	CLT 21:50	18%	6%	0.6%	57%
AA 5233 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 18:19	CLT 21:29	20%	5%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON