Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3871
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 3871 · XNA → CLT
departs 8:51 AM CT · arrives 12:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 7%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at CLT that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
CLT is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
↓
8am departures from XNA are usually not late
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.