Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3871
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
MQ 3871 · XNA → CLT
departs 8:51 AM CT · arrives 12:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 7%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
CLT is busy at that time
↓
8am departures from XNA are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.