tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 413 at 06:09, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 413 United ABQ 06:09 IAD 12:02 5% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 2 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:40 → DEN 07:20UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 8h 13m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 15:30 → IAD 17:25DL 1554 8h 25m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 11:20 → ATL 16:30DL 1004 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 6h 34m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535 2h 26m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 14:16 → IAH 17:33UA 3986 · flown by Mesa 2h 49m Houston IAH 20:22 → IAD 00:43 +1UA 1968 8h 27m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 13:33 → DEN 15:03UA 1741 2h 57m Denver DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32UA 2408 7h 59m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 12:19 → IAH 15:43UA 6151 · flown by Mesa 2h 49m Houston IAH 18:32 → IAD 22:43UA 1373 8h 24m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 11:42 → ORD 15:42UA 1557 2h 30m Chicago ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202 7h 40m 95% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON