Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, OO 4633 at 13:33, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 4633 SkyWest	ACV 13:33	LAX 15:44	12%	7%	5.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ACV 16:12 → SFO 17:33UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m San Francisco	SFO 21:27 → LAX 22:55UA 1079	6h 43m	98%	73%
United Details →	ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:09UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest	1h 56m San Francisco	SFO 09:05 → LAX 10:49UA 1457	4h 49m	96%	71%
United Details →	ACV 12:30 → DEN 16:22UA 5966 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m Denver	DEN 17:33 → LAX 19:04UA 1753	6h 34m	85%	69%
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	3h 29m San Francisco	SFO 18:51 → LAX 20:35UA 1799	6h 30m	97%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754	4h 00m	69%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON