Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Seattle, leaving 14:12, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1959 United Flight history →	ANC 23:37	DEN 07:03	11%	2%	0.7%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	3h 39m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → DEN 23:44DL 2851	10h 02m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	2h 08m Seattle	SEA 08:10 → DEN 12:02DL 1358	8h 32m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 13:50 → DEN 17:43DL 2543	9h 43m	97%	71%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:34 → PDX 06:15AS 593	48m Portland	PDX 07:03 → DEN 10:36AS 684	7h 02m	81%	71%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:58 → SEA 10:24AS 268	3h 05m Seattle	SEA 13:29 → DEN 17:05AS 304	9h 07m	100%	66%
Alaska Details →	ANC 07:00 → SEA 11:28AS 48	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 14:37 → DEN 18:00AS 602	9h 00m	99%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON