Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 513 ANC 07:57 → FAI 09:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest QX 2060 ANC 13:03 → FAI 14:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 513 Alaska	ANC 07:57	FAI 09:07	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 331 Alaska	ANC 07:44	FAI 08:57	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 81 Alaska	ANC 19:39	FAI 20:48	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 679 Alaska	ANC 12:51	FAI 14:04	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 1432 Alaska	ANC 10:15	FAI 11:28	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 226 Alaska	ANC 10:01	FAI 11:10	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
QX 2082 Horizon	ANC 20:14	FAI 21:30	13%	3%	2.1%	no record
QX 2058 Horizon	ANC 16:25	FAI 17:41	14%	3%	1.8%	no record
QX 2060 Horizon	ANC 13:03	FAI 14:20	16%	3%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON