Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:55 am at Anchorage)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Seattle, leaving 14:12, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	2h 53m Seattle	SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59DL 2635	8h 47m	97%	83%
Alaska Details →	ANC 09:06 → SEA 13:25AS 221	2h 18m Seattle	SEA 15:43 → SFO 17:47AS 680	7h 41m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	ANC 07:02 → SEA 11:27AS 48	2h 24m Seattle	SEA 13:51 → SFO 15:54AS 688	7h 52m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest	7h 34m	87%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON