Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, OO 3840 at 07:46, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 3840 SkyWest	ASE 07:46	ATL 13:15	9%	6%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24DL 4133 · flown by SkyWest	3h 56m Los Angeles	LAX 17:20 → ATL 00:42 +1DL 471	10h 39m	98%	86%
United Details →	ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Denver	DEN 10:08 → ATL 15:20UA 2806	5h 50m	96%	85%
United Details →	ASE 08:17 → DEN 09:27UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest	3h 56m Denver	DEN 13:23 → ATL 18:26UA 1671	8h 09m	100%	84%
American Details →	ASE 07:24 → DFW 10:30AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest	1h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:11 → ATL 15:36AA 1008	6h 12m	98%	84%
United Details →	ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Denver	DEN 17:48 → ATL 22:57UA 1305	7h 50m	97%	80%
American Details →	ASE 06:57 → ORD 10:44AA 6386 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 13:18 → ATL 16:20AA 616	7h 23m	97%	78%
United Details →	ASE 12:39 → ORD 16:45UA 5956 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → ATL 21:41UA 1398	7h 02m	92%	77%
United Details →	ASE 13:15 → IAH 17:14UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest	57m Houston	IAH 18:11 → ATL 21:29UA 2240	6h 14m	88%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON