tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, UA 5702 at 13:15, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5702 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 13:15 IAH 17:14 10% 6% 1.3% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m Denver DEN 10:10 → IAH 13:52UA 2030 5h 22m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:17 → DEN 09:27UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest 2h 07m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 5h 52m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:44 → LAX 09:07UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest 2h 37m Los Angeles LAX 11:44 → IAH 17:01UA 1477 8h 17m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 3h 50m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 7h 34m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Denver DEN 16:20 → IAH 19:57UA 588 7h 25m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:48 → SFO 10:54UA 4657 · flown by SkyWest 1h 45m San Francisco SFO 12:39 → IAH 18:40UA 3930 7h 52m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m Denver DEN 17:39 → IAH 21:04UA 1587 6h 57m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:53 → DEN 10:54UA 5770 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Denver DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829 6h 11m 94% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON