Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4631 ASE 08:25 → ORD 12:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5956 ASE 12:39 → ORD 16:45 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4631 SkyWest	ASE 08:25	ORD 12:21	8%	5%	1.8%	no record
AA 6386 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 06:57	ORD 10:44	8%	5%	1.3%	69%
UA 5956 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 12:39	ORD 16:45	13%	9%	1.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON