tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090 2h 58m Minneapolis MSP 14:28 → ANC 17:28DL 411 11h 33m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825 2h 04m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 10h 29m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 2h 34m Seattle SEA 17:24 → ANC 20:18DL 2367 11h 45m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 2h 15m Seattle SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936 11h 13m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → ATL 13:18 → ORD 14:41UA 745 1h 29m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 10h 36m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444 3h 46m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 12h 45m 100% 80%
AlaskaDetails → ATL 08:54 → SEA 11:20AS 348 3h 09m Seattle SEA 14:29 → ANC 17:13AS 1436 12h 19m 99% 78%
AlaskaDetails → ATL 16:18 → SEA 18:46AS 218 2h 03m Seattle SEA 20:49 → ANC 23:35AS 228 11h 17m 97% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON