Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1590 ATL 10:16 → CAE 11:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 3032 ATL 16:41 → CAE 17:49 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1590 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:16	CAE 11:27	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2944 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:00	CAE 12:59	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 9972 Delta	ATL 10:11	CAE 11:19	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3193 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:05	CAE 15:06	9%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 3029 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:39	CAE 23:43	11%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 2193 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:53	CAE 20:01	13%	2%	0.7%	78%
DL 3032 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:41	CAE 17:49	13%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 5091 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 10:05	CAE 11:14	7%	0%	0.0%	93%
DL 5001 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 20:10	CAE 21:19	40%	25%	3.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON