Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3091 ATL 09:00 → CHS 10:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 3179 ATL 17:44 → CHS 18:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3091 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:00	CHS 10:13	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 3107 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:46	CHS 12:00	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 2179 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:31	CHS 13:42	7%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 1381 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:40	CHS 15:53	7%	2%	0.7%	84%
DL 2850 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:10	CHS 00:26	9%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 2174 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:59	CHS 17:16	10%	2%	0.7%	82%
DL 2493 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:33	CHS 20:49	11%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 3179 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:44	CHS 18:59	11%	2%	0.7%	76%
DL 5450 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 07:40	CHS 09:00	6%	0%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON