Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 1002 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	ELP 13:20	11%	2%	0.7%	84%
DL 1713 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:39	ELP 20:50	16%	3%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ATL 07:07 → DEN 08:16WN 204	2h 55m Denver	DEN 11:11 → ELP 13:02WN 3384	7h 55m	100%	89%
United Details →	ATL 07:30 → DEN 08:51UA 340	2h 45m Denver	DEN 11:36 → ELP 13:32UA 2128	8h 02m	99%	87%
American Details →	ATL 16:43 → ORD 17:53AA 616	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 21:26 → ELP 23:56AA 3948 · flown by Envoy	9h 13m	98%	84%
United Details →	ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532	2h 34m Houston	IAH 10:49 → ELP 11:51UA 6309 · flown by Mesa	6h 46m	97%	83%
American Details →	ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:31 → ELP 12:24AA 1658	6h 02m	96%	81%
American Details →	ATL 11:02 → DFW 12:16AA 820	2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:41 → ELP 15:36AA 1681	6h 34m	96%	80%
American Details →	ATL 14:51 → DFW 16:10AA 3104	2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:41 → ELP 19:34AA 555	6h 43m	97%	78%
American Details →	ATL 12:28 → DFW 13:42AA 1276	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:12 → ELP 17:09AA 2097	6h 41m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON