Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 309 at 08:07 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 309 ATL 08:07 → MCO 09:44 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2050 ATL 15:29 → MCO 17:01 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 309 Southwest	ATL 08:07	MCO 09:44	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 2204 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	MCO 08:56	5%	2%	0.9%	90%
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	MCO 09:56	6%	2%	0.9%	86%
F9 1242 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:44	MCO 08:28	6%	3%	1.6%	79%
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:25	MCO 10:57	8%	2%	0.9%	85%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	MCO 12:00	9%	2%	0.9%	85%
DL 1562 Delta Flight history →	ATL 00:07	MCO 01:31	9%	4%	1.2%	73%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:25	MCO 13:00	10%	3%	1.0%	81%
DL 1576 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:51	MCO 14:22	11%	3%	1.0%	77%
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:59	MCO 14:34	11%	5%	1.2%	73%
WN 363 Southwest	ATL 14:10	MCO 15:35	13%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 1162 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:25	MCO 23:58	18%	5%	1.2%	68%
DL 1302 Delta	ATL 21:30	MCO 23:01	19%	5%	1.2%	no record
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	MCO 16:40	22%	8%	1.6%	63%
F9 3508 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:24	MCO 22:08	22%	13%	3.9%	49%
DL 1735 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:15	MCO 21:54	25%	8%	1.6%	61%
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:00	MCO 17:47	25%	9%	1.6%	57%
DL 2881 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	MCO 20:35	26%	8%	1.9%	62%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	MCO 18:50	27%	9%	1.9%	59%
DL 2035 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:27	MCO 21:00	30%	9%	1.6%	57%
WN 463 Southwest	ATL 16:26	MCO 17:48	31%	8%	1.6%	no record
F9 2050 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:29	MCO 17:01	31%	14%	3.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON