Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1676 ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1222 ATL 19:54 → SAT 21:20 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1676 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	SAT 09:43	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1408 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	SAT 13:38	9%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2009 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	SAT 15:10	11%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 1465 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:58	SAT 17:29	13%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 2893 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:11	SAT 18:36	14%	2%	0.7%	75%
DL 1508 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	SAT 00:20	15%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 1222 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	SAT 21:20	15%	3%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON