Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 571 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 571 ATL 06:30 → SFO 08:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 1447 ATL 16:55 → SFO 19:18 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 571 United Flight history →	ATL 06:30	SFO 08:35	6%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 693 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	SFO 10:20	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 672 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:03	SFO 13:52	9%	2%	0.6%	70%
DL 656 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:55	SFO 00:04	10%	3%	0.6%	70%
DL 823 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:50	SFO 15:48	10%	3%	0.6%	66%
DL 495 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	SFO 19:56	11%	3%	0.6%	51%
DL 681 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:43	SFO 21:40	15%	3%	0.6%	58%
F9 1447 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:55	SFO 19:18	18%	8%	0.9%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	57m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	6h 59m	92%	80%
Southwest Details →	ATL 07:07 → DEN 08:16WN 204	1h 10m Denver	DEN 09:26 → SFO 10:53WN 4760	6h 46m	95%	79%
Southwest Details →	ATL 07:17 → LAS 08:32WN 212	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 09:47 → SFO 11:23WN 349	7h 06m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON